homework chad2

Homework #2

 

Please answer the questions below. Each response should be in paragraph form. When done please submit your assignment to Canvas.

 

1. A correlation of .72 between test anxiety and college GPA means that:
2. Test score anxiety inhibits college achievement
3. Students who exhibit high test anxiety tend to get lower grades than those who show low in test anxiety
4. High test anxiety is associated with high grades

Explain your answer.

The correlation with test anxiety is high with college GPA meaning that those who have test anxiety has a major effect towards GPA attained in college.

 

2. Which is a stronger correlation and why? -.25 or +.25?

 

 

+.25 is a stronger correlation as it is going upwards and in a positive direction. This can be attributed to the fact that a weak correlation is far away from 1. In the same way, a negative correlation which lies far away from 1 can be defined as a weaker correlation.

 

 

3. Picking names out of a hat is an example of:
4. stratified random sampling
5. sampling error
6. simple random sampling
7. none of the above

Explain your answer.

 

4. Why do researcher prefer to use a random sample over a nonrandom sample?

 

A random sample is preferred as it makes sure that the test group is not biased in any way to a set of measures in a study when compared to a nonrandom sample.

 

 

5. Why would you use a stratified random sample instead of a random sample?

 

You would use a stratified random sample instead of a random sample when you are trying to look for specific characteristics. You are trying to match characteristics of a population percent.

 

6. Describe a variable that you think would be heavily affected by social desirability. (Do not use examples from book or class).

One variable which can be affected by social desirability is drug use. Questions on drug use tends to bring bias as the respondent is likely to answer the question in a way which will be viewed in a favorable manner by others. As a result, it will take the form of over-reporting underreporting undesirable or bad behavior or over reporting good behavior.  Thus, the tendency will have a severe problem when carrying our research with self-reports.

 

 

 

 

 

7. What are the strengths of doing in-person interviews/surveys versus surveys via mail? What are weaknesses in that comparison?

The strengths of doing in-person interviews is that it provides accurate screening. Face-to-face interviews provide more accurate screening. This is because the respondent is unable to offer false information during the screening questions like race, age or race. However, in surveys via mail, respondents can get around the screening questions as individuals can provide incorrect demographic information.

The weaknesses of doing in-person interviews is that the quality of the data used is related to the ability of the interviewer. Some individuals have the natural ability to carry out an interview and also collect data well. In the same way some interviewers are biased which can impact the way they input responses.

 

 

8. Describe what “yay saying” is and how a researcher can try to avoid it?

 

Yay saying happens when a respondents responds in a consistent pattern of a yes without regard for the question being asked or the content. A researcher can avoid a yay saying by making use of response options and formats which correspond closely to the subject of your question. This will also make it easier for the respondents to interpretation addition this approach is respondent friendly and makes it easy for the respondents to avoid biasness.

 

 

 

9. Give your own examples of demographic/fact questions, behavioral questions, and belief/opinion questions on a survey (1 each).

 

Demographic questions; how likely are you to recommend us to family, colleagues or friends?

Behavioral questions; Have you worked at a job or business at any time during the past 12 months?

Belief/opinion questions; Are you in favor of the death penalty for a person who has been convicted of murder?

 

10. Why do correlational methods tend to be lower in internal validity than experimental methods?

 

Correlation methods and experimental methods vary in their design. Thus, correlation methods have low internal validity as correlation studies allow a researcher to find associations between naturally occurring variables. This is different in experimental studies as the researcher introduces a change in experimental studies and then continues to monitor its effects.

 

Data Analysis using SPSS

MA Dissertation

Assessment One

This assessment comprises an analysis of a dataset using SPSS and is worth 10% of the module marks.

Data Analysis

You are required to analyse the results of a community survey carried out in Uganda. (It was also done in other countries but they are not included here). The purpose was to find out about the nature of violence against women and girls (VAW/G) in three different communities (in the districts of Kayunga, Kawempe and Mukono), and in particular violent assaults using acid and other materials (acid and burn violence, ABV). We wanted to understand people’s knowledge and experience of this kind of violence, attitudes to it, support available and possible ways of combatting it.

 

The original questionnaire (a Word document), the Excel datasheet designed for data entry, and the final SPSS data file are included in the MyBeckett folder for information. Use the first two to help you understand the questions asked, and what the answers mean (i.e. the variable names, labels and coding in SPSS).

 

You are required to produce a clear, concise and professionally formatted report to explain the key findings and their implications.

 

Use your knowledge of SPSS to analyse the dataset and answer the questions below. Illustrate your results with tables or figures (chart/graph) as appropriate, and comment on each one (a few sentences is sufficient) – what they show, any points of interest etc. Analysis and interpretation should be based on the evidence from the survey and linked to relevant and related literature.

 

Questions

 

1. What are the characteristics of the sample?
   Numbers of respondents; district, gender, age and education profiles
2. What are the main types of violence reported by people in their communities?
   Are there differences among communities, or gender differences?
3. What are people’s experiences of acid and burn violence (ABV)?
   Who is affected; what substances are used; what thought to be the causes of attacks?
4. What are attitudes to ABV?
   Are there differences among communities or men and women?
   Given the results, what do you think might be the prospects for changing attitudes?
5. What do people know about access to legal or support services?
   What are the implications for the project which is trying to provide support?
6. Comment on the research, questionnaire and dataset as a whole.
   What are the limitations?
   What further research might be needed?

 

Copy your SPSS outputs into a Word document, and submit via the Turnitin link.

Deadline, midnight 2^nd December

Word count: 1500 maximum (not including references)

 

You are not expected to know about this subject in detail already, and there is no single ‘right’ answer. You are being asked to use your judgement as researchers to extract from the dataset the key points and implications, and think about what your reader needs to understand. And also to think about what the research means, the methodology and any limitations, and link it to the literature (both methodological and subject-specific) on the subject.

 

There is no particular format you need to follow, but part of the assessment is about clear and accurate presentation of data, so you need to think about making it easy to understand by structuring it and possible use of sub-headings etc. as appropriate. Look at journal articles and reports for the style and quality of data presentation and reporting, and see further tips on presenting data below. No abstract is required, but a list of references used is needed at the end, using accurate Harvard format.

 

I recommend you save your Word document as a pdf before submitting via Turnitin. There have been occasional problems in the past of Turnitin affecting the formatting (e.g. spacing or text wrapping).

Tips & suggestions

Presenting quantitative data

 

You usually have a choice whether to present quantitative data as a Table or Figure. Each has its strengths and weaknesses, and the general rule should be that it clearly conveys the appropriate information to the reader.

 

Look at journal articles you are reading as part of your course. Look carefully at how data are presented – style, format, what information is in the title/legend, what is (and is not) included etc.

 

	Tables	Figures (Charts/Graphs)
Advantages	•   Actual data figures remain clear •   Reader can perform further calculations / analysis •   Promotes careful reading	•  immediate visual impact •  suitable for the less numerate •  easy to interpret (or should be)
Disadvantages	•   still an array of numbers to those who are less able to interpret them •   no immediate visual impact	•  actual numbers may not be apparent •  can mislead (perhaps not always unintentionally!) •  may be time consuming to produce

 

 

Each Figure or Table must be self-explanatory – that is it can be understood by the reader without having to refer to the main body of text.

 

Each Figure or Table must have a legend (title) which clearly explains what it is, any abbreviations etc. If not obvious (e.g. a percentage is used), it is good practice to indicate the number of data points on which the results are based – e.g. n=50 means the sample was 50. Indicate if any data were omitted

 

Number Figures and Tables consecutively

 

The axes should always have a label (with units if appropriate, e.g. $ or kg), or indicate their meaning in the legend. Similarly table column or row headings should always be clear and concise, and include units if appropriate.

 

Convention is usually that Tables have their legends above, and Figures below

 

Don’t just paste SPSS output tables into Word and leave them as they are. They will almost always need editing as by default SPSS can provide lots of extra information which is unnecessary or confusing for the reader.

 

Think about the precision of your results – that is (usually) the number of decimal places. Just because SPSS produces output to 4 or more decimal places does not mean you should uncritically paste them in. If you weighed 10 people on a set of bathroom scales to the nearest kg, it would be ridiculous to say the average was 60.2345 kg. This implies you measured to a precision of one tenth of a gram – which you obviously did not.

 

The example below is from SPSS output. I hope you can see it is not appropriate to just cut and paste in to a report!

 

 

 

 

Suggestions for presenting data

 

 

Example

(note this is taken from some work looking at teaching reflective practice to students. Staff and students were given the same questionnaire and asked to rate their answers to a series of questions. There were 12 graphs produced – I have only shown 2 here which is why they have the numbers 10 and 12 on them)

 

Figure 1. Responses to questions on reflective practice (RP) by students (shaded bars, n = 67) and staff (open bars, n = 19), where responses range from 0 = strongly disagree, to 5 = strongly agree.

 

 

 

You are then expected to comment on and interpret the results you have presented in the text.

 

 

What not to write…

Fig. 1.10 shows that 10% of students strongly disagreed, 10% slightly agreed … blah blah blah, and that 70% of staff strongly agreed… … , and Figure 1.12 shows that 0 staff strongly disagreed and 0 staff disagreed … …  blah blah. … etc.  We can see that!

 

The whole purpose of figures or tables is to show the results in an easy-to-read format, rather than writing them out in long detail which is dull and hard to understand. Don’t repeat the contents of figures or tables in the text. Draw attention to overall similarities/differences, or highlight particular points of interest, but concentrate on the significance / meaning / implications of what you have found. Critical analysis of information is what is needed for high marks.

 

 

So for the example above, it might be:

 

“It is clear from the above data (Fig. 1) that there are substantial differences in the perceptions of staff and students about whether reflective practice helps students to recognise what they do well or helps with other activities. Staff largely regard reflective practice as beneficial, while students are broadly equivocal. Such strong differences suggest further work is needed to understand why such differences occur, and staff may need to more clearly communicate what the advantages are and ensure students recognise the benefits.”

 

 

Some other tips

 

Grouping data

 

• To help analysis, interpretation & presentation, data can be grouped into classes
• Particularly used for continuous interval data (age, cost, number of visits etc)
• Can also be for ordinal (e.g. combining those who were “very satisfied” or “mostly satisfied” etc)
• Make sure the classes do not overlap, e.g. 0-10, 10-20, 20-30
• Deciding the class boundaries, and therefore the class size can make a difference
• Too many doesn’t achieve much; Too few can hide important variation
• Can have open-ended classes if appropriate, e.g. <10, 25 or more
• No ‘hard and fast’ rule, but the choice of class boundaries can make a difference – try different ones on your data to check

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Don’t use figures which are not necessary, or fancy colours, shapes or 3D options which may be available in some software.

 

So below, what is the point of a 3D pie chart, where part of a sentence saying ‘85% of people said yes’ would be enough

 

 

 

 

 

Resources

 

Bryman A (2012) Social Research Methods (4^th ed.) Chapters 15 Quantitative Data Analysis, and 16 Using IBM SPSS for Windows. [Same chapters in the 2016 5^th edition too]

 

There are lots of guides to using SPSS in the library – search the catalogue

 

SPSS e-tutor available at http://commons.esc.edu/spss/about/

 

Lots of other resources in Skills for Learning

http://skillsforlearning.leedsbeckett.ac.uk/local/research/analysing_and_presenting_data/04.shtml#spss

 

SPSS is available to download to your laptop or home computer via the library Student IT Support page http://libguides.leedsbeckett.ac.uk/it_support/software/get_SPSS

 

Use Discover or Google Scholar to find items of relevance to the topic and UN Women has a searchable site http://www.unwomen.org/en

 

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Design of Experiments – Coyote Mess

Assignment 3: Design of Experiments – Coyote Mess
TMC310
Individual – Submit on Blackboard
Dr. Cho
Background
The city of Glendale is in trouble. It has spent $220MM on an arena facility specifically to
house ice hockey. Many said it was ludicrous to have hockey in the valley of the sun, but with
so many transplants (40,000 people move to Phoenix each year) and the 10th largest
metropolitan area in the United States [U.S. Census Bureau], Phoenix is attempting to become
a 4 sport city.
The history of the team has been rocky:
• 1971: The World Hockey Association folds, but it absorbs a few teams including the
Winnipeg Jets.
• 1996: Due to poor currency exchange rates and mounting financial pressures, the Jets
choose to move to Arizona and are crowned as the Phoenix Coyotes. They play out of
America West Arena (which has poor sight lines for hockey) with its primary fan base
from the east valley.
• 2001: Steve Ellman and Wayne Gretzky purchase the club. America West is the second
smallest facility in all hockey and the team is losing money.
• 2003: Despite Ellman’s best efforts to generate a facility in Scottsdale, a deal doesn’t
materialize and the team moves west to Glendale Arena (now Gila River Arena).
• 2004: Seasoned cancelled due to lockout. New agreement is favorable to the owners.
• 2005: In a dispute over real estate deals, Jerry Moyes takes control of the Coyotes
from Ellman.
• 2006: Moyes tries to sell the club; he has no interest in hockey.
• 2008: League gives financial assistance to Moyes.
• 2009: Moyes fights with the league. Makes a deal to sell to RIM CEO (Blackberry) Jim
Balsillie for $242.5MM and Balsillie will move the team to Hamilton, Ontario. The
league wants to keep the team in Phoenix in hopes of improving its national TV
contract; losing the #10 market would be a severe blow. Legal maneuverings take
place and the league takes control of the team; Moyes walks away with $140MM.
• 2012: Another work stoppage, the 3rd in 15 years under Commissioner Gary Bettman.
• 2013: In negotiations with the city of Glendale (who is responsible for running the
team), the Coyotes can move in 2017 if losses exceed $50MM.
Some of the business background of the Coyotes includes:
• All hockey related revenue due to parking, naming rights, and tickets go to the team
and not the city of Glendale.
• Hockey is primarily a regional sport with 80% of team revenue coming from local
sources.
• Hockey came back to Winnipeg; an expansion team there is worth $350MM while the
Coyotes are valued at $220M with $4.5MM in losses.
• Arizona is ranked 29 out of 30 teams in terms of worth.
• Revenue is $92MM per year with player costs of $60MM. The average fan is worth
$11 (Forbes).
• Philadelphia, a metropolitan area similar to Phoenix but with a hockey tradition, is
worth $660MM.
• Attendance is poor. The arena holds 17,125 fans but only 13,776 show up (2014 – 3rd
Line Grind). This is a huge dip from the 15,500 fans they averaged in 2003.
The city of Glendale doesn’t know what to do; some fans are mumbling to let the team go to
Canada and it’s time to move on. There comes a point when a business just might not be
feasible.
However, the city of Glendale will not surrender easily. It hires the best marketing consulting
firm available: TMC310.
The TMC team discusses how to determine whom to target and how they will do it. They
raised two main points:
1. Who are the customers?
The TMC team came up with three groups:
1. Families. If they can get kids to become hockey fans early, they can become the
platform to grow from.
2. Corporations. By forming corporate partnerships, they can sell out the more
expensive seats and sell bundles of tickets.
3. Transplants. Hockey is now an international sport and is all over the United States.
Hockey fans are also extremely passionate; the smell of an ice rink sends shivers down
hockey fans spines (that or they’re just cold). They need to focus on people from
hockey based regions.
There’s some skepticism about these groups. Tickets are too expensive for families (average
price: $62.18) and hockey is not like baseball – it’s not handed down from father to son.
Corporate sponsorships are tough to come by because everyone wants to get corporate
dollars. In terms of transplants, Jack Kent Cooke, the man responsible for moving the Kings to
Los Angeles, was told that there were more than 300,000 former Canadians living within a 3h
drive to LA. Kent replied, “Now I know why they left Canada: They hate hockey!”
After picking the focus groups, the team needed to determine what drove their decision
making. They came up with the following five factors:
1. Facility. The Glendale arena had the ambience of a warehouse. If they could spruce it
up, fans would walk away with a better experience and would want to come back.
2. Fighting. Fans love a good fight. By getting more goons on the team and playing
aggressive hockey, more people would come out.
3. Wins. The Coyotes used to draw better because they won games. Like the Cardinals,
Arizonans do support a winner. However, this could be temporary.
4. Star Power. Name a Coyote player other than Shane Doan? That’s the problem. They
need to spend money on a superstar that will draw fans.
5. Price. Fans are heavily elastic. Bring the price down some more (at $56.28, they are
already below average) and fans will come.
The TMC310 squad realized they needed data to see what drives each group.
Exercises
TMC310 ran a two level experiment and the results are shown in Table 1.
Accommodations: 1 means they like the ballpark the way it is, 5 means they wish the park
were nicer.
Fighting: 1 means they can’t stand it while 5 means fighting will bring them to the arena.
Wins: 40 means they’re competitive, 55 means they’re a play-off team.
Star Power: 1 means that they don’t care if they have stars and 5 means they would prefer to
see stars
Price: 35 refers to a $35 average ticket price and 62 refers to $62.
Based on the conditions of a response, the respondents ranked it from 1 (hate it) to 100 (love
it).
Exercises
1. Calculate for all three response variables the Effect +, Effect – and Effect for all 5 factors.
What are the significant factors if we are looking for things that will make a 10% or better
impact?

For the table, it has a 2⁵ design which has five factors, each with two levels, and thus making it a  2⁵=32 experimental condition. The mathematical expression for the effect is calculated as
2. Are there weaknesses in this DOE? If there is, how would you fix it?
3. Some signs in the DOE are positive and some are negative. For each of the five factors,
what does a negative sign mean? (e.g., suppose I am baking cookies with less sugar and
more sugar and the tasters grade the cookies on a scale of 1-100. A positive slopes means
that if I put more sugar in, they like the taste better; a negative slope means they like the
cookies better with less sugar).

The high levels of each factors have been labeled with (1) whereas the lows have been labelled with (-1).
4. Based on the data, which group(s) do you think you should go after? How will they get
them to attend based on what they value? What do you think the Coyotes should do

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Project Management Plan

This assignment follows from the case study used in Assessment 2. For the same case study, complete the following tasks by creating the following:

1. Scope management plan( including Requirements, In scope-out scope items, Deliverables and scope verification process) to direct your efforts. (10 marks)

1. WBS first using either the free-form or the org chart format. (20 marks)

1. Gantt chart-Take the WBS you have already developed. Define all of the activities that will be necessary to create each deliverable in your WBS. Create a schedule for your project. First create the schedule by hand using Post-it^® Notes, and then put the information into MS Project. Take screenshots of the schedule to be pasted ni your word document that you are submitting. Be sure to include all of the summary rows (including the first row for the project title) and any key milestones. Make sure the critical path is easy to see.- 10 marks

1. Create a time-phased budget for your example project using bottom-up estimating. To the extent your sponsor will supply rates for workers, use those. Approximate rates for ones you cannot get. Ask your sponsor how they treat indirect costs. Be sure to include direct labour costs for you and your team mates and add 20% for fringe. State all assumptions and constraints you have used when creating your budget. State how confident you are in your estimates and what would make you more confident. Give examples of known knowns and known unknowns on your project. Tell how you have budgeted for both of them plus how you have budgeted for unknown unknowns. (15 marks)

1. Create a risk register ( 4 risks- 3 negative and 1 positive risk)for your example project. (20 marks)

Rationale

This assessment task covers topics 1 to 9 and has been designed to ensure that you are engaging with the subject content on a regular basis. More specifically it seeks to assess your ability to:

• demonstrate how a practicing project manager actually applies project management skills,
• methods, techniques and tools ;
• use an industry standard project management software tool (Microsoft Project);
• apply project management skills, methods, techniques and tools to a real world problem typical of a project manager;

Marking criteria

	STANDARDS
Criteria	FL	PS	CR	DI	HD
Task 1 Scope Mgt Plan- Requirements, Scope details(5 marks)	unclear attempt that is ambiguous / incomplete	Defined Requirements but ambiguous / incomplete.	Clear description of requirements and in scope items defined.	Defined description of Requirements and in-scope items and out-of-scope items.	Clear description of Requirements and in-scope items and out-of-scope items relevant to the case study
Task 1 Scope Mgt Plan- Deliverables and Scope verification (5 marks)	unclear attempt that is ambiguous / incomplete	Defined deliverables but ambiguous / incomplete.	Clear description of deliverables and scope verification defined.	Clear description of deliverables and scope verification	Clear description of project scope, including named deliverables. Scope verification/ acceptance is also defined relevant to the case study.
Task 2-Work Breakdown Structure (WBS)- 20 marks	unclear attempt that is ambiguous / incomplete	WBS is mentioned with some breakdown of Project Scope.	WBS is structured, having detailed coverage for Project scope / Phase of project.	WBS is well structured, having logical and complete coverage for Project Execution	WBS is structured, having logical and complete coverage for Project Execution and integrated into Project Schedule and Resource Matrix.
Task 2-Gantt Chart ( 10 marks)	unclear attempt that is ambiguous / incomplete	Gantt chart shows- some activities included, schedule created, summary rows shown, few /none milestones shown	Gantt chart shows- some activities included, schedule created, summary rows shown, first row shows project title , total duration shown, some milestones shown, critical path shown	Gantt chart shows- most activities included, schedule created, summary rows shown, first row shows project title , total duration shown, most milestones shown, critical path shown	Gantt chart shows- all activities included, schedule created, summary rows shown, first row shows project title , total duration shown, all necessary milestones shown, critical path shown and easy to see
Task 2-Budget ( 15 marks)	unclear attempt that is ambiguous / incomplete	Bottom-up estimating done,  few assumptions and constraints you have used when creating your budget stated. Budget extracted from MS Project showing overall budget	Bottom-up estimating done. some assumptions and constraints you have used when creating your budget stated. Examples of known knowns and known unknowns on your project given. Budget extracted from MS Project showing overall and breakdown for all summary tasks and resource	Bottom-up estimating done. Direct labour costs for you and your team mates and 20% for fringe included. Most assumptions and constraints you have used when creating your budget stated. Confidence level for estimation stated. Examples of known knowns and known unknowns on your project given. Budget extracted from MS Project showing overall and breakdown for all summary tasks and resource	Bottom-up estimating done. Direct labour costs for you and your team mates and 20% for fringe included. All assumptions and constraints you have used when creating your budget stated. Confidence level for estimation stated. Examples of known knowns and known unknowns on your project given with explanation. Budget extracted from MS Project showing overall and breakdown for all summary tasks and resource along with various costs
Task 2-Risk Register ( 20 marks)	unclear attempt that is ambiguous / incomplete	Some values of Risk register are accurate and Consistent, some items of the register complete.	Most values of Risk register are accurate and Consistent, most items of the register complete.	All values of Risk register are accurate and Consistent, all items of the register complete.	All values of Risk register are accurate and consistent, all items of the register complete. Risks are relevant to the case study

Requirements

Students are required to submit the range of documents describing their proposed project solution for the above tasks.

Work Breakdown Structure (WBS)

• The first major section (1.0) should be project management and include the various project management deliverables such as charter, WBS, schedule, progress reports, etc.
• Deliverables should match those in the charter.
• Each item on the WBS should have a unique name.  If there is possible confusion between two items add an extra adjective to differentiate them. For example, two items could be “first draft report” and “second draft report.”
• Each line should be numbered with major sections being 1.0 then 2.0, etc.
• Each major section should be broken down into between three and twelve subsidiary sections. If further breakdown is needed, more levels should be used.
• All items on WBS are deliverables oriented (they are the “whats” of the project). Activities are defined as an outgrowth of the WBS and will appear in the schedule.
• The WBS can be submitted in free-form, org-chart, or indented-outline format.
• The WBS should appear to be complete with all interim and ending deliverables included.

Schedule / Gantt chart

• The schedule should appear to be complete given the charter and WBS.
• The schedule should appear to be reasonable without requiring heroics to complete on time.
• Include WBS column to left of task name column.
• Include overall project name as top row.
• Have all summaries stated in noun only format (or adjective noun – but on present tense verbs).
• Have all tasks (activities) stated in present tense verb-adjective-noun format.
• Have all milestones stated in noun and past tense verb format.
• All tasks should have dependencies shown – no loose ends.
• Display Gantt portion of schedule as large as possible.
• Show critical path in red (or distinctive hash marks if printer is only black).
• Show arrows with dependencies.
• Include no more than 40 lines per page – ensure it is large enough to read easily.
• Include no more pages than necessary so there is little need to align multiple pages for reading unless it is a large schedule.

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International Financial Management

1. Inflation in Brazil is expected to be 24% p.a. by the third quarter of this year. ABC plc imports from Brazil paying in Brazilian real.

1. Explain and evaluate the role of Purchasing Power Parity theorem in ABC’s decision as to whether or not to look for a cheaper alternative.

(6 marks)

1. The financial press reports that carry traders in the UK are actively investing in Brazil. Explain the significance of these reports for your decision as to whether to continue importing from Brazil.

(6 marks)

1. How might a futures contract be used to manage the possible effects of volatile import prices – what are the advantages and disadvantages?

(6 marks)

1. Consider the following data from the Trading Economics website in July 2016 after the referendum result in favour of the UK leaving the EU:

Base	Exchange Rate			Annual change in the number
Euro Area	EURUSD	1.1043		-1.0 %
United Kingdom	GBPUSD	1.2970		-16.4 %
Australia	AUDUSD	0.7562		1.5 %
New Zealand	NZDUSD	0.7252		7.8 %
Japan	USDJPY	102.31		-16.7 %
China	USDCNY	6.7011		7.9 %
Switzerland	USDCHF	0.9832		4.8 %

1. Calculate the percentage change of each currency against the pound (GBP – note that you will need to consider cross exchange rates) explain your analysis clearly.

1. As the changes against the pound (GBP) do not represent interest rate differentials, does this mean that the International Fisher Effect is irrelevant? Explain and discuss in relation to the concept of an efficient market.

1. Explain how a range forward or cylinder type option contract with a bank might have helped a UK based company importing goods from the US over the past year.

1. Discuss whether the risks of foreign direct investment into a developing country outweigh the benefits of diversification, for a multinational company from a developed country?

1. Compare and contrast the use of derivatives with non-market methods to manage exchange rate risk and commodity price variation in international trade

 

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summarize the article Amazon Food Review Classification using Deep Learning and Recommender System

Introduction

This article seeks to summarize the article Amazon Food Review Classification using Deep Learning and Recommender System by Zhou and Xu. The main aim of this article is to analyze, the problem trying to be solved by the researchers, the techniques or the functions from deep neural networks used and the implementation of the recommendation system used by Zhou and Xu (2016).

What are the problems they are trying to solve?

The main problem being solved is the review usefulness in the classification problem. According to Zhou and Xu (2016) majority of the ecommerce websites such as the Amazon enable users to write a review on the services and products they purchased during their shopping. The reviews are often critical to other users when trying to make the decision on whether to buy or not to buy the product.  This shows that, websites should seek to understand the meaning of reviews and classify them correctly. This way, the classification results can be used in creating an effective recommender and summarization system.  Zhou and Xu (2016) classified the usefulness of each review by making use of the deep learning models.

What functions or techniques from deep neural networks are they using?

For this research, Zhou and Xu2016  used the feed-forward neural network and the LSTM model as the main techniques and functions from the deep neural networks.  The standard feed-forward neural network was first used where the input was the word vector which represented every review x. The input was forward propagated through the deep network where the output yi was a 2-dimensional vector which demonstrated whether the review was useful or not. Experimentation was done with different number of hidden layers hidden units and the non-linear relationship between the number and the levels of the embedding size. This consequently resulted to a five-layer neural network.

So as to explore more an advanced model, the LSTM model was used which was introduced by Hochreiter & Schmidhuber. In the Model, Zhou and Xu (2016) trained the word vector   trained their word vectors on an all words in all reviews in a global word-word occurrence matrix as opposed to using the pre-trained word vector.  The X representation was then fed into the LSTM model. In this case, the model was used to essentially map the word sequence to a workflow and a class. Class proportion was used in calculating the cross entropy loss.  After input was fed through the LSTM model, the yi output is a 2-dimensional vector which is a representation if a review is useful or not useful.

Both the LSTM and the Feed forward neural network were used to beat the baseline model as the loss function was adjusted which helped the models to improve the accuracy in prediction.  Nevertheless, the Feed forward neural network outperformed the LSTM model as word vectors were trained in the model and the LSTM processed sequenced of words and therefore it was able to store more information.   The classifier worked in a manner in which, there was a high probability that answers with more positive words and longer answers were classified as being useful

How is the recommendation process implemented?

Zhou and Xu (2016) implemented the standard matrix factorization and collaborative filtering system and opposed to the deep neural network based recommender system as their experienced time constraint.   Review classification was used so as to establish consistency in the data set, In addition the test/training set was divided as 70/30 and the dataset used.   The baseline model for the recommender system was therefore recommending the products which were overall popular.  The measures for analyzing the performance of the matrix factorization and collaborative filtering was the RMSE test set.  The different recommender systems were analyzed based on their performances where the RMSE attained for the popular baseline model was 1.7372, Matrix Factorization was 1.1198 and Collaborative Filtering 1.4538. This shows that both the matrix factorization and the collaborative filtering outperformed the baseline model and the matrix factorization was the model which performed best.  The matrix factorization is one of the most widely used and successful model as  it characterizes both the user and item vectors of factors which are  secondary from item rating patterns as opposed  to similarity measures so as to be able to recommend items to the user.

 

Conclusion

The  main problem being solved is the  review usefulness in the classification problem  while the feed-forward neural network and the LSTM model as the main techniques and functions from the deep neural networks and the standard  matrix factorization and collaborative filtering system and opposed to the deep neural  network based recommender system as their experienced time constraint.

 

 

 

 

 

Reference

Zhou Z and Xu L (2016) .Amazon Food Review Classification using Deep Learning and Recommender System. CS224d: Deep Learning for Natural Language Processing. StanFord.edu

Applied Regression Analysis

For the final project, you will need to produce an original statistical analysis or forecast using the regression techniques covered in this course. Students are free to select any topic they would like so long as it meets the requirements described below, and may also work in groups of up to two people. Requirements All projects should include the following components: » An introduction outlining the purpose of the project and the primary question it seeks to answer. » A section explaining the data to be used. » A section explaining the regression methods to be used and important considerations being taken to ensure that analysis is correct. » A section presenting the results of the regressions according to best practices as well as the results of tests and checks done to reinforce the analysis. » A section which interprets and discusses the results of the regressions and tests. » A section which summarizes and concludes about what the analysis gives as the answer to the primary question of the project.

Choosing a topic for this paper is difficult, but there are few key things to keep in mind to ensure that the topic you select will satisfy the requirements of the paper and still be enjoyable to write. 1. You need to choose a dependent variable. That means you need an outcome which can be measured. A regression can only accommodate one dependent variable, so if you want to look at multiple outcomes (encouraged), you will be doing several regressions (not hard). 2. You need to think about the causes of your outcome, and then find or collect data on the causes which can be measured. These will be your independent variables. 3. Most of the time, it is just one or two independent variables that you are interested in. Regression is a tool for singling out the impact of each independent variable. 4. Don’t choose a topic without exploring your data options. There are a lot of plausible topics, but only a few possible ones. Data is a much bigger limitation than your imagination.

These are a few ideas I have had over the years which I think make for interesting topics. You should not select them unless you think they are compelling though. By virtue of me listing them here, it means I have thought about them, and will be more critical of your approach. » Determine whether or not the minimum wage contributes to unemployment. » Determine whether or not the minimum wage contributes to GDP. » Determine whether or not grades, or GPA, matter for outcomes like income. » Find the most important determinants of people’s discount rate. » Predict the outcome of a sporting event. This can be anything from predicting the records of each team in a league to predicting the score of each game. You could even focus on predicting specific player statistics. » Estimate a person’s resting metabolic rate, life expectancy, or some other biometric. » Predict the outcome of an awards show. The Emmys, Grammys, Oscars, Tonys, or whatever else you would like to know the winners of in advance. » Determine whether or not income inequality is an important factor for income growth by evaluating its use as a predictor of GDP growth. » Use alternative methods to predict something that is commonly forecasted (e.g. GDP, quarterly revenue, unemployment, the weather, commodity futures, etc.). Compare your results to what has been done previously.

 

 

For answers contact freelanceresearch89@gmail.com

World Politics

• Essay (70 marks)

–Deadline: 16-01-17.

–Essay questions:

–1. What is meant by the term ‘sovereignty’ in International Relations, and how has the actuality of sovereignty evolved?

–2. What is meant by the term ‘hegemony’ in International Relations and how has the practice of hegemony evolved?

–3. To what extent can the international be said to resemble a ‘society’ and how has this evolved?

–4. In what ways can it be said that the international realm is ‘produced’?

–5. In what ways does the state system embody discrimination on the grounds of race of gender?

 

–Your essay must be no more than 1500 words, plus references.

–You must reference using the Harvard style – see Quote Unquote

–

–Feedback:

• Submission is via turnitin.
• Online feedback via Grademark (rubric, comments on text, general comments and a mark).

For  notes and this essay contact freelanceresearch89@gmail.com

SURVEY OF ECONOMICS

Bases for grading: 40% – Relevance of the content to the lessons/principles discussed; 40% – Clarity of the idea; 20% – spontaneity of the sequence of argument in the discussion of the topic.

1. Illustrate the following with supply and demand curves:
2. With increased access to wireless technology and lighter weight, the demand for laptop computers has increased substantially. Laptops have also become easier and cheaper to produce as new technology has come online. Despite the shift of demand, prices have fallen.
3. Cranberry production in Massachusetts totaled 2.37 million barrels in 2008,a 56 percent increase from the 1.52 million barrels produced in 2007.Demand increased by even more than supply, pushing 2008 prices to $56.70 per barrel from $49.80 in 2007.
4. During the high-tech boom in the late 1990s, San Jose office space was in very high demand and rents were very high. With the national recession that began in March 2001, however, the market for office space in San Jose (Silicon Valley) was hit very hard, with rents per square foot falling. In 2005, the employment numbers from San Jose were rising slowly and rents began to rise again. Assume for simplicity that no new office space was built during the period.
5. Before economic reforms were implemented in the countries of Eastern Europe, regulation held the price of bread substantially below equilibrium. When reforms were implemented, prices were deregulated and the price of bread rose dramatically. As a result, the quantity of bread demanded fell and the quantity of bread supplied rose sharply.
6. The steel industry has been lobbying for high taxes on imported steel. Russia, Brazil, and Japan have been producing and selling steel on world markets at $610 per metric ton, well below what equilibrium would be in the United States with no imports. If no imported steel was permitted into the country, the equilibrium price would be $970 per metric ton. Show supply and demand curves for the United States, assuming no imports; then show what the graph would look like if U.S. buyers could purchase all the steel that they wanted from world markets at $610 per metric ton; show the quantity of imported steel.

SET B PROJECT

 

Bases for grading: 40% – Relevance of the content to the lessons/principles discussed; 40% – Clarity of the idea; 20% – spontaneity of the sequence of argument in the discussion of the topic.

2. During the period 2006 through 2010, housing production in the United States fell from a rate of over 2.27 million housing starts per year to a rate of under 500,000, a decrease of over 80 percent. At the same time, the number of new households slowed to a trickle. Students without a job moved in with their parents, fewer immigrants came to the United States, and more of those already here went home. If there are fewer households, it is a decline in demand. If fewer new units are built, it is a decline in supply.
3. Draw a standard supply and demand diagram which shows the demand for new housing units that are purchased each month, and the supply of new units built and put on the market each month. Assume that the quantity supplied and quantity demanded are equal at 45,000 units and at a price of $200,000.
4. On the same diagram show a decline in demand. What would happen if this market behaved like most markets?
5. Now suppose that prices did not change immediately. Sellers decided not to adjust price even though demand is below supply. What would happen to the number of homes for sale (the inventory of unsold new homes) if prices stayed the same following the drop in demand?
6. Now supposed that the supply of new homes put on the market dropped, but price still stayed the same at $200,000. Can you tell a story that brings the market back to equilibrium without a drop in price?
7. Go to http://www.census.gov/newhomesales. Look at the current press release, which contains data for the most recent month and the past year. What trends can you observe?

SET C PROJECT

 

Bases for grading: 40% – Relevance of the content to the lessons/principles discussed; 40% – Clarity of the idea; 20% – spontaneity of the sequence of argument in the discussion of the topic.

1. Housing policy analysts debate the best way to increase the number of housing units available to low-income households. One strategy—the demand-side strategy—is to provide people with housing vouchers, paid for by the government, that can be used to rent housing supplied by the private market. Another— a supply-side strategy—is to have the government subsidize housing suppliers or to build public housing.
2. Illustrate supply- and demand-side strategies using supply and demand curves. Which results in higher rents?
3. Critics of housing vouchers (the demand-side strategy) argue that because the supply of housing to low-income households is limited and does not respond to higher rents, demand vouchers will serve only to drive up rents and make landlords better off. Illustrate their point with supply and demand curves.
4. On Sunday, August 19, the Detroit Tigers and the New York Yankees played baseball at Yankee Stadium. Both teams were in pursuit of league championships. Tickets to the game were sold out, and many more fans would have attended if additional tickets had been available. On that same day, the Cleveland Indians and the Tampa Bay Rays played each other and sold tickets to only 22,500 people in Tampa. The Rays stadium, Tropicana Field, holds 43,772.Yankee Stadium holds 57,478.Assume for simplicity that tickets to all regular-season games are priced at $40.
5. Draw supply and demand curves for the tickets to each of the two games.(Hint: Supply is fixed. It does not change with price.) Draw one graph for each game.
6. Is there a pricing policy that would have filled the ballpark for the Tampa game? If the Rays adopted such a strategy, would it bring in more or less revenue?
7. The price system was not allowed to work to ration the New York tickets when they were initially sold to the public. How do you know? How do you suppose the tickets were rationed?

For answers contact freelanceresearch89@gmail.com

Energy status in Venezuela

What is the current energy status dependence in Venezuela?

Venezuela is currently the largest natural gas reserve and conventional oil reserve  country making it   one of the world’s leaders when it comes to the production of hydroelectric(Goldwyn and Gill, 2014).  The key factors facing the country is that, the oil sector is the dominant energy force in the country making Venezuela an oil dependant country for its economy.  However, the nation’s dependence on oil and gas has threatened its future viability, social successes and its economy greatly.

The main internal threat and vulnerability is that, Currently, Venezuela is facing political turbulence and socioeconomic woes which has continue to get worse.  The domestic political economy has gone into indefinite turbulence creating a threat on the energy insecurity in Central America and Caribbean. External threat and vulnerability is that,   the falling oil prices which influence the economy of Venezuela which is dependent on oil

The state’s response to the issues is that, the country to establish effective policies such as petro Caribe which helps the country attain political loyalty by credit subsidies which aid in the import of cured oil and other products by the Caribbean states

These has greatly affected the people of Venezuela as the country has plunged severally into decreasing country’s growth and inflation. This greatly affects the livelihood of the country especially when destabilizing political events hit the country, its economy plunges. Nevertheless, the energy status has also enabled the country to establish programs which help the marginalised people in the country to get basic resources and services  in parts which were excluded previously. This has greatly impacted country such as US which is a country which is mostly dependant on oil imports from the country.  In addition, Venezuela’s  prolonged oil production has led to oil pollution  and  even the subsiding of Lake Maracaibo’s shores  posing a threat to global warming as its emit of carbon dioxide increases (McIntyre, A . et al,  2016).

 

 

References

Goldwyn, L, D and Gill, C, R (2014)  Uncertain Energy, The Caribbean’s gamble with Venezuela. Atlantic Council. Adrienne Arsht . Latin America Centre.

McIntyre, A . et al,  (2016). Carribean energy Macro- Related Chnages . IMFT working paper WP/16/53